What I Have Learnt #1
Honestly, I will just wing it. I was considering doing it with AI, but was thinking, maybe staying raw and simple thoughts will do. I will just be sharing very basic info and insights from the content that I have consumed past week. Of course, there are way more stuff that I consumed, but I will only share meaningful ones. I am sure you didn’t subscribe to this newsletter for brainrot or memes or comedic stuff.
General topics I will be sharing. AI, investing, geopolitics, economics, philosophy, and maybe some random stuff once in a while like art, anime, movies, health, etc.
I will also include the topics for the week at the start of the newsletter every week, so that you wouldn’t waste your time reading things you are not interested in.
Topics: Geopolitics, Oil, Stock Market
Iran War, Oil and Stock Market
On February 28, 2026, the United States (Operation Epic Fury) and Israel (Operation Roaring Lion) launched a massive, coordinated campaign of precision airstrikes inside Iran. The operation targeted nuclear facilities, air defenses, and government hubs after diplomatic tracks completely deteriorated.
After 109 days, MOU was signed for a ceasefire. Many fake headlines and many theories about what has happened behind the scenes, but one thing for sure, the market knew about it ahead of time. It is now 15 days since the MOU and both sides seem to not have kept their words completely as tiny skirmishes still happen here and there.
Regardless of headlines and stances about the war, let’s see what we can learn from the war and how it could give us nuggets of wisdom to navigate future wars and uncertainty in the markets.
SP500 futures market chart:
Around August to December, there was a military pivot toward Latin America and attacked cartels and classified the Maduro-linked Cartel of the Suns as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. January 3rd, 2026, they captured Maduro.
The US attacked Iran on February 28. However, price action has told us something was brewing as markets stop making higher highs and momentum is slowing down since November 2025.
On 31st March, there was a big green candle caused by Trump saying the Iran War will be over soon in 2-3 weeks.
The pivotal moment before the big surge is when the USA allegedly stopped bombing.
Operation Epic Fury has ended and the USA is trying to make a deal with Iran.
Ceasefire officially began and an MOU was signed.
If you realize, the market is always ahead of the news. There was instability brewing in November to February and the market was telling you something was up and before the war officially ended, the market was already making new all time high 20% since the bottom.
Based on the past 30 wars, the market usually starts to recover around 20 days. For the Iran war, it bottomed after 30 days. This is a note to self to find opportunities to buy into the market after 20 days for future wars. You do not need to add in a lot at once and can size up as development feels more positive. Instead of caring about what they say, focus on the change in stance.
At first, Trump really wanted to destroy Iran, but as his political support dwindled due to inflation and SP500 dropping due to a longer war than expected (I think he miscalculated), he could not take it and started to de-escalate. He can parade about how he won and objective has been achieved, but his tonality has changed and the markets picked it up.
WTI Chart:
In January, the oil market sensed something was brewing, stabilizing above key moving averages.
2 Mar, market open, Iran War spike.
7 Apr, peak oil, but you don’t know yet. This is due to Trump changing stance and stopping bombing aggressively.
30 Apr, failed to make higher highs.
28 May, lower lows, suggesting de-escalation is real and oil is officially losing steam.
Once again the market was ahead. 5) was a key turning point to give you hints to add in more position. People feared inflation and oil was a key part of it. Trump basically had no choice but to find a compromise with Iran as he has mid-terms coming soon and dragging on will be disastrous (maybe I will write about it in the future, oil seems to be in a very interesting spot, especially post-Iran war, TLDR whatever buffer has been released needs to be refilled and low probability of re-escalation). When inflation is lower or controlled, it gives the Fed a reason to lean more into rate cuts, which is good for markets.
SP500 futures chart with Key Moving Averages:
When Trump hinted it will end, it was time to watch the market closer as it gave out a bullish engulfing candle.
4) Stopped bombing was quite positive as it reclaims the fast moving averages and was an opportunity. The next yellow circle as it retested the 50 day was also an opportunity.
The last yellow circle, for braver souls, was an opportunity at the fast moving averages considering how fast it moves up.
Key Lessons:
Market prices things ahead of time. Listen to the tape and how prices react with each other. Oil price was a factor that caused SP500 to drop, but around 2 Apr to 7 Apr, oil kept climbing and SP500 climbed as well. Same goes for 20 Apr to 30 Apr.
Basic chart reading and piecing together qualitative information could give opportunities.
War or geopolitical events generally will get better 1 month ahead.
For energy or oil positions, war is a trade, not ideal for long-term positions. Despite all the data and oil bulls saying how it is going to get higher, at the end of the day, listening to the price and chart seems better for my style personally.
Do not miss the big picture, the AI buildout will happen with or without oil and US presidents generally care about SP500 and will face pressure to de-escalate if needed.
Oil is at an interesting spot. A lot of inventory has been drawn, yet the market does not seem to care, but momentum of selling has slowed down.
July will be a scary time for semiconductor stocks in general. Leaders have shown signs of weakness, but no one knows if it is the top, likely a pullback and rebase in my opinion. Maybe I will share more on the market update.
Software and Mag7 looks interesting, but will share more on market update if needed.
I have a project that I want to launch soon and it allows me to be transparent with you guys in real time for my positions, but I need more people to subscribe or at least tell me they are interested, and I would need to be sure people are not blindly following, but more of me sharing my thought process.
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